Grid reform and photovoltaic development can achieve each other
"As a government regulation business, the distribution network has not been completely established at the present stage. If operators want to pursue higher investment returns, they must make efforts on the power supply, minimize the power cost in the service area, and provide more space for the business arrangement of terminal sales as much as possible. Therefore, the reform of distribution network will greatly promote the development of the photovoltaic industry, and the two will surely achieve each other in the future. Peng libin, chairman of Beijing xianjian energy consulting, said at the third century pv conference recently.
Pv + grid standard configuration
On March 20, the general office of the national development and reform commission issued no. 356 notice on further promoting the reform of incremental power distribution business (draft for comment). One of the first mentioned to encourage the stock distribution network reform, formally started the separation of transmission and distribution. The document will further break down industry barriers and open up market barriers to distribution networks, which will further open up to social capital.
"At present, we know from the energy administration center that the stock distribution network has about 3,000 power supply business licenses, while the number of enterprise distribution network to incremental distribution network may reach 2,000, involving capital estimated to be more than 5 trillion, which will be a bigger industry than photovoltaic," peng said.
"As the distribution network operation belongs to the public setting business, it is inevitable that the distribution network price will belong to the assets of low income, long-term investment and great responsibility. In order to obtain better investment income, it is necessary to find the optimal way to reduce the cost of power supply." "From the current trend, distributed energy will become an important pillar of the distribution network, and the construction of photovoltaic power stations is the first choice for enterprises to reduce the cost of power supply," peng said.
Some industry experts predict that with the further opening of the stock distribution network and no subsidy problem involved, all distribution network enterprises will try their best to build centralized user-side on-site absorption photovoltaic power stations. These plants will become an important part of the electricity generation market.
Photovoltaic "in" coal "out"
Data shows that the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic has exceeded that of coal power in 2017. 'this is a milestone in the energy transition,' said li qionghui, director of the national grid energy research institute. It is expected that in the short term, the proportion of new energy in the total installed power capacity will surpass that of traditional fossil energy and enter a new phase of incremental replacement. The installed capacity of pv is expected to surpass that of wind power, which has been leading the way.
But people in the industry are very worried about the future development pattern of energy, especially the market space problem of photovoltaic and how to achieve the "advance" of photovoltaic and the "retreat" of coal in the short term of 2030.
"A large number of coal-fired power plants are expected to be decommissioned in the Middle East around 2030, which will create very large space for new energy development." "At the same time, there will be a new problem - whether the new energy resources can meet the clean energy consumption in central and eastern China," li qionghui told reporters. Based on current data, it is difficult for the actual power generation capacity of wind power to replace that of coal power generation in central and eastern China. In the short term, at least until 2020, the focus of pv development will be in the central and eastern regions, and it is expected that the future growth of power demand may exceed the original market planning. But that may still not meet the demand and will require further development of the western region."
Li explained that before 2017, distributed pv was small in scale and had little impact on the main power grid, so relevant government departments had little control over it. "However, with the development of distributed photovoltaic, in some parts of the central and eastern regions, such as jiaxing, there is a situation that the grid adjustment cannot keep up due to the huge peak and valley difference in the short time of noon. Therefore, sometimes extreme measures must be taken to operate local power grids. At the request of the energy administration, the next step is for grid companies to regularly announce to the public the grid connection capacity of this region, so as to solve the problem as soon as possible. "Said li qionghui.
Small monopoly risks increase
Undoubtedly, grid reform will further promote the development of distributed new energy, especially distributed photovoltaic. Peng libin predicted that "" slotted" "distributed pv may" "blossom everywhere" ". "Because land costs in central areas are so precious, distribution networks in urban densely populated areas will find ways to use space as much as possible to build photovoltaic power stations. As costs fall further, the replacement of rooftop photovoltaic power stations will be commonplace. Peng libin told reporters.
Besides, Peng Libin said the industry might also faces three big risk: the first is likely - small monopoly mechanism in pursuit of a higher return on investment, distribution network companies will toward the hair, with comprehensive development, sales integration, but only belongs to control business distribution network, it may appear unreasonable to keep other power feed-in tariff, reduce the use of proprietary power station hours, prevent competitive business such as unfair treatment; Secondly, the terminal electricity price may face the problem of decline after the reform, and the photovoltaic power station electricity price system will be seriously challenged in the future competition. Finally, due to the drive of investment and benefit pursuit, in the initial stage, some investors will blindly mount photovoltaic power station without considering the safety and operation stability of power grid, which will increase the security risk of photovoltaic power station system.
Even so, industry insiders remain optimistic about the combined development of "photovoltaic + distribution network". Peng peng, secretary general of China new energy power investment and financing alliance, said, "photovoltaic projects will attract more non-power industry holders, and even some large energy-consuming enterprises are interested in investing in intelligent distribution network projects, and focus on investing in pv assets. Therefore, how to combine the transformation demand of incremental distribution network and photovoltaic is an important trend of the future distributed market and even the whole renewable energy market. Both at the distribution end and the power asset end, the subject will develop towards diversification and establish a multi-level market.
Li qionghui also said that from the actual grid development, grid companies are very supportive of clean energy development. "In foreign countries, the power grid industry has been regarded as a sunset industry. The development of new energy and smart grid has brought the power grid back to sunrise industry, from which grid enterprises have gained new life. "Said li qionghui.